Modelling Consumer Demand for Organic Agricultural Products: Sustainable and Digital Marketing Approach

The paper examines the problems of forecasting and modeling consumer demand in the organic agricultural products market in the context of sustainable development and digital marketing, which is due to the growth of environmental awareness of the population and the active spread of digital communication channels, but is constrained by the level of income and a high share of food costs. The methodology is based on consumer surveys, factor and regression analysis, matrix method and forecasting. The results showed that the formation of demand is determined by a combination of economic, social and behavioral factors, among which the key ones are the level of income, perception of affordability, as well as trust in certification and awareness of the benefits of organic products. It is proven that digital marketing increases the influence on purchasing decisions, forms sustainable consumption patterns and supports the development of responsible behavior. It is concluded that the integration of predictive models and digital marketing tools provides a more accurate definition of future demand trends and creates a basis for the formation of effective strategies aimed at increasing the availability and popularization of organic products in accordance with the principles of sustainable development.