A Model Downscaling Study of a Wind Park Exposure to Extreme Weather: A Case of Storm ‘Ylva’ in Arctic Norway

Wind energy has the potential to become an important source of energy for remote Arctic regions. However, there are risks associated with the exposure of coastal wind parks to extremely strong winds caused by storms and polar lows. Extreme winds can either enhance or reduce wind energy production. The outcomes largely depend on the coastal landscape surrounding the wind park. To address these questions, we conducted a series of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This study focuses on one of the strongest wind events along the western Norwegian coast - the landfall of the storm “Ylva” (November 24–27, 2017). The study employs terrain-resolving downscaling by zooming in on the area of the Kvitfjell-Raudfjell wind park, Norway. The terrain-resolving WRF simulations reveal stronger winds at turbine hub height (80 m to 100 m above the ground level) in the coastal area. However, it was previously overlooked that the landfall of an Atlantic storm, which approaches this area from the southwest, brings the strongest winds from southeast directions, i.e., from the land. This creates geographically extensive and vertically deep wind-sheltered areas along the coast. Wind speeds at hub height in these sheltered areas are reduced, while they remain extreme over wind-channeling sea fjords. The study demonstrates that optimal wind park siting can take advantage of both sustained westerly winds during normal weather conditions and wind sheltering during extreme storm conditions. We found that the Kvitfjell-Raudfjell location is nearly optimal with respect to the extreme winds of “Ylva.”