Forest Transition Under Climate Pressure: Land Use Land Cover (LULC) Change in the Greater Shawnee National Forest (GSNF)

The land use and land cover (LULC) of many regional landscapes are changing due to natural effects and anthropogenic activities, impacting biodiversity and ecosystem services. LULC dynamics reflect the altered flow of energy, water, and greenhouse gases, influencing the pillars of sustainability: society, environment, and economy. Thus, assessing LULC changes is vital for understanding the relationship between nature and society. This study used multi-temporal remotely sensed imagery to examine LULC change between 1990 and 2019 in the context of Forest Transition Theory (FTT) across the Greater Shawnee National Forest (GSNF) area of southern Illinois, USA, using a Random Forest algorithm, and projecting change to 2050 with a Land Change Model integrated with IPCC temperature and precipitation scenarios. From 1990 to 2019, LULC analysis showed increases in deciduous forest (1.35%), mixed forest (26.40%), agriculture (2.15%), and built-up areas (6.70%), while hay/grass/pasture declined (16.0%). LULC change intensity was highest from 1990 to 2001 (2.35% annually), slowing to 0.23% (2001–2010) and 0.18% (2010–2019). LULC classification accuracy ranged from 92.9% to 95.9% with kappa coefficients of 0.89–0.94. Projections to 2050 showed consistent increases in built-up areas (17.12%–42.61%), water (28.75%–39.70%), and hay/grass/pasture (6.23%–38.38%), while overall forest cover declined in all scenarios. Deciduous forests decreased by 3.11%–19.87% and were replaced by mixed forests in some scenarios (12.45%-23.63%), while evergreen forests showed mixed responses, ranging from a decline of up to 17.13% to an increase of 2.90%. The results showed that the GSNF broadly follows the FTT framework: forest recovery since 2001 coincided with rural depopulation, slow agricultural expansion, and rising incomes. However, climate change is expected to disrupt this recovery, pushing transitions toward mixed and evergreen forests. Findings demonstrate the importance of integrating remote sensing-based LULC with socio-economic trends and climate adaptation strategies to sustain forests and ecosystem services under future environmental pressures.