Closing the Gap: Refining Vaccine Forecasting and Resupply Calculations in Mozambique through Advanced Routine Data Analysis

Vaccines save lives, but only if they are available at health facilities for administration. Stockouts occur for various reasons, including inaccurate forecasting and resupply calculations. Population-based forecasts are typically used for immunization programs, yet are often based on inaccurate population estimates. This retrospective study analyzed available routine facility-level data from two districts in Mozambique to provide insights for improved supply chain management, including resupply decisions, at the facility level. Data from August to October 2023 were collected and analyzed for wastage rate, session cohort, and forecast accuracy. Results show that district-level wastage rates are nominally different from World Health Organization standards, while significantly different at the facility level. Analysis also showed divergence of vaccination doses provided to a session cohort during the month-long time period. Using population-based forecast for resupply methodology consistently undersupplied facilities, while using the number of doses of administered BCG as a proxy for the population provided a more accurate forecast with some chance of oversupply for a few vaccines. The results suggest an opportunity to shift from a one-size-fits-all approach to forecasting and resupply decisions, leveraging existing data systems, applying tailored wastage rates, and adjusting inventory management policies to ensure vaccine availability.