Innovative Credit Scoring and Sales Accounting Solutions for SMEs in Kazakhstan

The paper examines the combination of traditional banking credit assessment techniques with contemporary internal sales accounting systems in Kazakhstan, aiming to augment the precision and resilience of financial assessments pertaining to SMEs. The proposed model consists of two discrete components: a traditional credit scoring module that employs logistic regression and a supplementary sales analytics module that leverages ensemble machine learning methodologies - random forests and gradient boosting algorithms. The outputs generated by these components are amalgamated through an ensemble strategy, where optimal weighting coefficients are ascertained via cross validation. An empirical analysis was conducted on a dataset encompassing 41,000 SME records from a prominent Kazakhstan bank alongside daily transactional sales data from 150 SMEs gathered between the years 2021 and 2024. The integrated hybrid model demonstrated a statistically meaningful enhancement in predictive efficacy, as evidenced by an increase in the area under the ROC curve from 0.76 to 0.87 and a decrease in mean squared error from 0.12 to 0.08 relative to the traditional methodology. The investigation delves into the transformative influence of digitalization on innovation within SMEs, elucidating that improved real-time data integration not only sharpens risk assessment processes but also promotes adaptive lending strategies and operational efficiencies.