From Correlation to Causation: Identifying NATO-Indo-Pacific Cooperation Mechanisms Based on Lossless Knowledge Graphs

This study aims to address how NATO can simultaneously advance cooperation and mitigate sensitivities within the Indo-Pacific. The author proposes a three-step approach: guided by the principle of less political discourse and more concrete action (low politicisation and issue-oriented focus), first consolidating standards and collaboration with the Indo-Pacific Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (IP4), then advancing in tiers according to the distinct characteristics of India, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Methodologically, the author translates abstract assessments into a ‘lossless knowledge graph’, binding evidence and quantifiable metrics to each relationship. Visualised data underpins conclusions (e.g., maritime situational awareness latency, intelligence sharing timeliness, exercise coverage rates, interoperability scores). Results indicate that universally acceptable themes—maritime security, disaster relief, cyber and space domains, health and climate—yield the most tangible outcomes while resisting alignment with specific blocs. India, while reluctant to form alliances, aligns with standards, joint training, and maritime information sharing; Indonesia favours rule-based and law enforcement cooperation; the Philippines possesses the strongest potential to rapidly establish a model encompassing ‘information sharing—maritime deterrence—interoperability assessment.’ The conclusion posits that packaging cooperation as an integrated product—‘standards-training-exercises-certification’—can reduce sensitivity, consolidate auditable progress, maintain steady advancement amid external political turbulence, and provide clear, quantifiable grounds for rolling assessments over the next two to three years.