How Compliance Maturity Translates to Risk Reduction: A Multi-Case Comparison of Global Operations Using fsQCA and Hierarchical Bayesian Methods

In light of the increasing complexity and heterogeneity of global compliance regimes, recent research has emphasized the necessity of enhancing organizational compliance capabilities as a strategic lever to mitigate enterprise risk exposure. Kawtar and Khadija highlighted that effective compliance governance correlates positively with operational resilience and regulatory adaptability, particularly in volatile markets. Building upon this foundation, the present study investigates how variations in compliance maturity translate into quantifiable reductions in both the frequency and timing of major risk events within multinational corporations. Drawing on a cross-industry sample of 21 enterprises from the manufacturing, telecommunications, and financial services sectors, a Compliance Maturity Index (CMI) is developed using the two-parameter logistic model within the Item Response Theory framework. Governance configuration paths leading to risk suppression are subsequently identified through fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), and the causal relationships are validated using hierarchical Bayesian Logit models and Cox proportional hazards models, consistent with the causal inference strategy proposed by Bley et al. Empirical analysis reveals that incremental improvements in compliance maturity are associated with a 32% decline in major compliance violations and a 22% increase in third-party partner satisfaction ratings. Among the identified configurations, the most robust governance pathway—characterized by elevated CMI, rigorous external audits, active senior management participation, and comprehensive digital dashboard coverage—exhibits a configuration consistency of 0.86 and coverage of 0.61. This configuration also achieves a pooled hazard ratio of 0.63, indicating delayed onset of compliance failures. These findings underscore the critical role of compliance maturity as a mediating mechanism within risk governance architectures and provide evidence-based guidance for designing resilient compliance strategies in complex operational environments.