Incorporating Renewable Generation Uncertainty Into Multi-Objective Dispatch Optimization

This article analyzes an electrical system based on the IEEE-57 bus case, which integrates thermal and wind generation to meet hourly demand. Using the previous day’s wind forecasts as firm market bids, the optimal Pareto frontier for thermal dispatch is calculated, balancing total cost and emissions. The system operator selects a dispatch point based on the desired cost–emissions ratio. To reflect real-world uncertainty, the study incorporates statistical deviations in actual wind production derived from historical data. For each deviation scenario, new optimal thermal dispatch curves are generated. This approach allows for preventive scheduling across the range of expected wind deviations and supports real-time adjustments through mechanisms such as redispatching, intraday markets, or secondary/tertiary regulation.