Global Warming Forecast Using Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)

This study aims at delineating specific proven features of climate change in the Sultanate of Oman since 1950, and also highlighting potential features of the climate change in the Sultanate of Oman up to 2150 under the worst future scenario of SSP5-8.5 (the unsustainable Fifth Shared Socioeconomic Pathway “Fossil-fueled development - Taking the highway”, coupled with a high radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 in 2100), and under the best future scenario of SSP1-1.9 (the sustainable First Shared Socioeconomic Pathway “Sustainability - Taking the green road”, coupled with a low radiative forcing of 1.9 W/m2 in 2100). The study is primarily based on public data from the CCKP (Climate Change Knowledge Portal of the World Bank Group), which in turn utilizes a set of climate simulation tools or datasets, such as CMIP6 (Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), ERA5 (fifth generation ECMWF ReAnalysis for the global climate and weather), and N-SLC (NASA's Sea Level Change). The study shows that the warming trend in the mean average air temperature of the surface in the Sultanate of Oman based on historical data between 1971 and 2020 is 0.025 °C/year (100% statistically significant), or a 1 °C increase every 40 years. However, this country-level overall warming rate varies spatially, being highest in Buraimi (0.048 °C/year, or 1 °C increase every 21 years) and lowest in Duqm (0.017 °C/year, or 1 °C increase every 59 years). These warming rates within Omani lands may escalate (for a projection period of 2051-2100) to between 0.064 °C/year and 0.074 °C/year according to the SSP5-8.5 scenario, or weaken to only 0.01 °C/year according to the SSP1-1.9 scenario. Compared to the 40.96 °C historical value (as a reference level for the period between 1995 and 2014), the average maximum air temperature of the surface in June is expected to reach about 48.07 °C in the year 2099, according to the framework SSP5-8.5 (reflecting an increase of 7.11 °C). The mean sea level (MSL) at the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Oman may rise by 1.39 m in 2150 (relative to the level of 2005) according to the SSP5-8.5 scenario. This is attenuated to only 0.57 m according to the SSP1-1.9 scenario. No proven precipitation anomaly has been observed so far in Oman. Tropical cyclone data show very rare occurrences, and this is mostly limited to the least-damaging class of tropical storms.