Mapping Forest Climate-Sensitivity Belts in a Mountainous Region of Namyangju, South Korea, Using Satellite-Derived Thermal and Vegetation Phenological Variability

Mountain forests play a key role in buffering local climate, yet their climate sensitivity is seldom mapped in a way that is directly usable for spatial planning. This study investigates how phenological thermal and vegetation variability are organized within the forested landscape of Namyangju, a mountainous region in central Korea, and derives spatial indicators of forest climate sensitivity. Using monthly, cloud-screened Landsat-8/9 land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images over a recent multi-year period, we calculated phenological coefficients of variation for 34,123 forest grid cells and applied local clustering analysis to identify belts of high and low variability. Forest areas where LST and NDVI variability simultaneously occupied the upper tail of their distributions (top 5%/10%/20%) were interpreted as climate-sensitivity hotspots, whereas co-located coldspots were treated as microclimatic refugia. Across the mountainous terrain, sensitivity hotspots formed continuous belts along high-elevation ridges and steep, dissected slopes, while coldspots were concentrated in sheltered valley floors. Notably, the most sensitive belts were dominated by high-elevation conifer stands, despite the limited seasonal fluctuation typically expected in evergreen canopies. This pattern suggests that elevation strongly amplifies the coupling between thermal responsiveness and vegetation health, whereas valley-bottom forests act as stabilizers that maintain comparatively constant microclimatic and phenological conditions. We refer to these patterns as “forest climate-sensitivity belts,” which translate satellite observations into spatially explicit information on where climate-buffering functions are most vulnerable or resilient. Incorporating climate-sensitivity belts into forest plans and adaptation strategies can guide elevation-aware species selection in new afforestation, targeted restoration and fuel-load management in upland sensitivity zones, and the protection of valley refugia that support biodiversity, thermal buffering, and hydrological regulation. Because the framework relies on standard satellite products and transparent calculations, it can be updated as new imagery becomes available and transferred to other seasonal, mountainous regions, providing a practical basis for climate-resilient forest planning.