Quantifying the Impact of High Emitters on Vehicle Emissions: An Analysis of Ecuador's Inspection and Maintenance Program

On-road vehicles are a primary source of urban air pollution. It is known that high-emitting vehicles represent a fraction of the fleet but contribute significantly to the total emissions. Usually, road transportation emission inventories do not capture the impact of these types of vehicles, underestimating emissions. This study introduces a simple method to refine vehicle emission inventories by incorporating data from Ecuador's Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) program. We analyzed I/M data from Quito to develop a correction factor for the Vehicular Emissions INventory (VEIN) model, accounting for the higher emissions from vehicles that fail inspection. Our analysis showed that while less than 10% of gasoline and 20% of diesel vehicles failed inspection, their emissions were substantially higher; for instance, reproved vehicles produced 3.9 times more CO and 6.2 times more HC on average. Applying our correction factor increased total emission estimates by an average of 33%, with CO emissions rising by 65%. These findings demonstrate that incorporating I/M data is crucial for accurately quantifying vehicular pollution. The proposed methodology offers a way to create more realistic emission estimates, providing a better tool for policymakers to manage air quality.