Seroprevalence of Poliovirus Types 1, 2, and 3 Among Children Aged 6-11 Months: Cross-Year Trends in High-Risk Areas of Pakistan

Background: The current polio epidemiology in Pakistan poses a unique challenge for global eradication, with polio transmission dynamics influenced by regional variations in immunity and disparities in immunization coverage. This study assesses the immunity level for all three poliovirus types among children 6-11 months in polio high-risk regions of Pakistan. Methods: Four consecutive rounds of cross-sectional serological surveys were conducted in polio high-risk areas of Pakistan between November 2016 and October 2023. 12 high-risk areas were covered in the first three rounds of the survey, while 44 high-risk areas were covered in the fourth round. 25 clusters from each geographical stratum were selected utilizing probability proportional to size. Results: Across the four rounds of the survey, 32,907 children aged 6–11 months from 2,084 clusters and 32,371 households were covered. Temporal analysis showed that seroprevalence of poliovirus type 1 was high in provinces (>95%), albeit consistently lower in Balochistan (going down to 89.7% in Round 4). Type 2 seroprevalence was significantly lower and more heterogeneous, from 34.6% in Sindh to 83.4% in Punjab, with sharp declines by Round 4, particularly in Balochistan (40.4%). Type 3 seroprevalence was overall high (>94% in Punjab, Sindh, and KPK) but dropped in the last round, while Balochistan exhibited continually lower immunity (81.1%). Conclusion: The findings reflect the variations in population immunity to poliovirus in the country, with notable fluctuations over the years. The gaps in type 2 immunity over time and consistently lowest in Balochistan highlight the need for continued monitoring of immunity levels and adaptable vaccination strategies.