Real-World Predictors of Survival in CDK4/6 Inhibitor-Treated Metastatic Breast Cancer: The Significance of ER Expression Level and Treatment Naivety

Objective: CDK4/6 inhibitors constitute standard first-line therapy for hormone receptor (HR)-positive, HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer (MBC). We investigated real-world predictors of overall survival (OS), with particular focus on high ER expression (≥90%). Methods: In this multicenter, retrospective study, we analyzed 603 HR-positive/HER2-negative MBC patients treated with CDK4/6 inhibitors (ribociclib or palbociclib) between May 2020 and June 2024. We evaluated demographic, clinical, and pathological factors for their impact on OS using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Results: In univariate analysis, significantly longer OS was observed in endocrine therapy-naive patients (median OS: 51.0 vs. 33.3 months; p < 0.001), those without liver metastases (50.0 vs. 34.0 months; p = 0.019), bone-only metastases (57.7 vs. 40.5 months; p = 0.022), and PR-positive patients (50.0 vs. 36.0 months; p = 0.037). Patients with ER expression ≥90% showed a strong trend toward longer OS (49.0 vs. 41.0 months; p = 0.072). In multivariate analysis, endocrine therapy naivety (p = 0.045) and high ER expression (≥90%) (p = 0.031) emerged as independent predictors of superior OS. Conclusions: Our study identifies treatment naivety and exceptionally high ER expression (≥90%) as key independent predictors of prolonged OS in CDK4/6 inhibitor-treated MBC patients. These findings underscore the importance of early CDK4/6 inhibitor implementation and suggest that quantitative ER assessment may refine patient selection beyond conventional positivity thresholds.