Machine Learning-Based Soft Sensors for Reliable Bottom-Hole Pressure Estimation

Monitoring bottom-hole pressure (BHP) is critical for reservoir management and flow assurance, especially in offshore fields where challenging conditions and production losses are more impactful. However, reliability issues and high installation costs of Permanent Downhole Gauges (PDGs) often limit access to this vital data. Soft sensors offer a cost-effective and reliable alternative, serving as backups or replacements for physical sensors. This study proposes a novel data-driven methodology for estimating flowing BHP using wellhead and topside measurements from plant monitoring systems. The framework employs ensemble methods combined with clustering techniques to partition datasets, enabling tailored supervised training for diverse production conditions. Aggregating results from sub-models enhances performance, even with simpler machine learning algorithms. We evaluated Linear Regression, Neural Networks, and Gradient Boosting (XGBoost and LightGBM) as base models. A case study of a Brazilian Pre-Salt offshore oilfield, using data from 60 wells across nine platforms, demonstrated the methodology’s effectiveness. Error metrics remained consistently below 2% across varying production conditions and reservoir lifecycle stages, confirming its reliability. This solution provides a practical, economical alternative for studies and monitoring in wells lacking PDG data, improving operational efficiency and supporting reservoir management decisions.