Causal Assessment of Cross-Border Project Risk Governance and Financial Compliance: A Hierarchical Panel and Survival Analysis Approach Based on H Company's Overseas Projects

Using 42 overseas projects of Company H from 2017 to 2022 as the sample, this study constructs the Project Lifecycle Compliance Index (PLCI) and Cross-Departmental Coordination Index (CPI). It employs a multilevel difference-in-differences (DiD) approach combined with firm/country fixed effects to identify the causal effects of the integrated compliance framework. The Cox proportional hazards model is used to characterize delay risk. Causal Forest analysis further captures country and project complexity heterogeneity effects, while XGBoost + SHAP explains the importance of predictive features for non-compliance. Results indicate: a 37.5% reduction in violation rates, a hazard ratio (HR) for delay probability decreasing to 0.71 (95% CI: 0.62–0.82), an average reduction of 22.3% in delivery delays, and a 31.6% improvement in CPI. This demonstrates that synergistic risk governance and financial compliance significantly enhance cross-border project performance.