From National Averages to Local Realities: A Subnational Vulnerability Index to Guide Sustainable Development in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

To achieve a sustainable society that is resilient to climate change and natural disasters, it is essential that socioeconomic vulnerabilities are addressed. However, within poor countries, hotspots of vulnerabilities are difficult to identify, as for these countries existing vulnerability measures are only available at the national level. Here we address this issue by presenting a subnational version of the GDL Vulnerability Index (GVI), a composite index designed to monitor and analyze the human dimensions of vulnerability to climate change, natural disasters, and other kinds of shocks. The Subnational GVI (or SVGI) is available for 1300+ regions across 121 Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), providing an over 10 times more detailed picture of socioeconomic vulnerability than was possible before. Decomposition analyses reveal that this higher resolution increases the observed variation in vulnerability by more than 70 percent in the poorest regions. Since 2000, total vulnerability across LMICs has declined by about 24%, but at the same time the variation in vulnerability has increased, thus highlighting the importance of subnational data. By capturing localized disparities in coping capacity, adaptive capacity and susceptibility, the SGVI provides vital new insights and data for climate adaptation and sustainable development planning.