Manure Production Projections for Latvia: Challenges and Potential for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Manure is a valuable organic resource for sustainable agriculture, enhancing soil fertility, and is crucial for nutrient cycling; however, it also contributes significantly to methane and nitrous oxide emissions. The European Green Deal and Latvia's National Energy and Climate Plan have set targets for reducing agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including those related to improved manure management. Therefore, this research aims to estimate the future manure production in Latvian agriculture to assess the potential for reducing GHG emissions by 2050. Using the LASAM model developed in Latvia, the number of farm animals, the amount of manure, and the associated GHG emissions were projected for the period until 2050. The calculations used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology and were based on national indicators and current national GHG inventory data to cover the years 2021–2050. The study predicts significant changes in the structure of manure in Latvia by 2050, as the proportion of liquid manure is expected to increase, while the amount of solid and manure deposited by grazing animals is expected to decrease. The results of the GHG emission projection showed that by 2050, total emissions from manure management would decrease by approximately 5%, primarily due to a decline in the number of farm animals and, consequently, a reduction in the amount of manure. In contrast, methane emissions are expected to increase by approximately 5% due to production intensification. The research results emphasise the need to introduce more effective methane emission reduction technologies and improve projection approaches.