Advancing Rural Mobility: Identifying Operational Determinants for Effective Autonomous Road-Based Transit

Rural communities face persistent transport disadvantages due to low population density, limited-service availability, and high operational costs, restricting access to essential services and exacerbating social inequality. Autonomous public transport systems offer a transformative solution by enabling flexible, cost-effective, and inclusive mobility options. This study investigates the operational determinants for autonomous road-based transit systems in rural and peri-urban South-East Queensland (SEQ), employing a structured survey of 273 residents and analytical approaches, including General Additive Model (GAM) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The findings indicate that small shuttles suit flexible, non-routine trips, with leisure travelers showing the highest importance (Gain = 0.473) and university precincts demonstrating substantial influence (Gain = 0.253), both confirmed as significant predictors by GAM (EDF = 0.964 and EDF = 0.909, respectively). Minibus shuttles enhance first-mile and last-mile connectivity, driven primarily by leisure travelers (Gain = 0.275) and tourists (Gain = 0.199), with shopping trips identified as a significant non-linear predictor by GAM (EDF = 1.819). Standard-sized buses are optimal for high-capacity transport, particularly for school children (Gain = 0.427) and school trips (Gain = 0.148), with GAM confirming their significance (EDF = 1.963 and EDF = 0.834, respectively), demonstrating strong predictive accuracy. Hybrid models integrating autonomous and conventional buses are preferred over complete replacement, with autonomous taxis raising equity concerns for low-income individuals (Gain = 0.047, indicating limited positive influence). Integration with Mobility-as-a-Service platforms demonstrates strong, particularly for special events (Gain = 0.290) and leisure travelers (Gain = 0.252). These insights guide policymakers in designing autonomous road-based transit systems to improve rural connectivity and quality of life.