Assessing the Disconnect Between Model-Based Flood Forecasts And Community-Level Risk Management Strategies

Many places in Southern Africa experience seasonal flooding, but the intensity and predictability of these events have changed significantly over the past few decades. These increasingly severe and unpredictable floods affect rivers and low-lying areas the most. The Okavango Delta, the fifth largest Ramsar site in the world and UNESCO World Heritage site, has experienced a series of large floods since 2007, with particularly high inundation between 2009 and 2012. This study assesses the technical accuracy of flood forecasts and evaluates their relevance and integration into Community-based Risk Management (CBRM) strategies, particularly in flood-prone areas of Ngamiland District. Through geospatial analysis, soil physical and chemical analysis, literature review, and key stakeholder interviews, this research aims to bridge the gap between scientific flood prediction and community-level preparedness, ultimately contributing to more inclusive and effective early warning systems.