Modeling Spatial Determinants of Blue School Certification: A Maxent Approach in Mallorca

The Blue Schools initiative integrates the ocean into classroom learning through project-based approaches, cultivating environmental awareness and a deeper sense of responsibility toward marine ecosystems and human–ocean interactions. Although the European Blue School initiative has grown steadily since its launch in 2020, its uneven uptake raises important questions about the territorial factors that influence certification. This study examines the spatial determinants of Blue School certification in Mallorca, Spain, where a bottom-up pilot initiative successfully certified 100 schools. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling, we estimated the spatial probability of certification based on 16 geospatial variables, including proximity to Blue Economy actors, hydrological networks, transport accessibility, and socio-economic indicators. The model achieved strong predictive performance (AUC = 0.84) and revealed that features such as freshwater ecosystems, traditional economic structures, and sustainable public transport play a greater role in school engagement than coastal proximity alone. The resulting suitability map identifies over 30 high-potential, non-certified schools, offering actionable insights for targeted outreach and educational policy. This research highlights the potential of presence-only modeling to guide the strategic expansion of Blue Schools networks.