Prosecco Under Pressure: Modelling Export Flows and U.S. Tariff Scenarios Using a Gravity Model Approach

This study analyses the export performance of Prosecco wine in the context of rising global protectionism, focusing on the potential impact of new U.S. tariffs. In July 2025, the Trump administration announced its intention to increase duties on EU agri-food products from 10% to 30%, with potential escalation if retaliatory measures are adopted by the EU. To evaluate these effects, an augmented gravity model was estimated using export data from 40 destination countries between 2017 and 2023. The model includes standard gravity model variables (GDP and distance) as well as tariffs, a time trend, and a COVID-19 dummy. Results are consistent with theoretical expectations: economic size positively affects trade flows, while distance and tariffs reduce them. Prosecco exports exhibit a strong upward trend over time, while the COVID-19 variable is not statistically significant, suggesting resilience of this market segment. Based on the model estimates, export forecasts to the U.S. for 2025–2027 were simulated under three tariff scenarios (10%, 30%, and 60%). While higher tariffs result in significant short-term losses (up to –30.3%), projections indicate a full recovery of 2024 export volumes by 2026 (tariffs 30%) and 2027 (tariffs 60%). These results underscore the importance of supply-side management strategies in stabilizing trade flows in response to external shocks.