Climate Change and Its Potential Impact on the Conservation of Wooden Pole Dwellings in Lake Bolsena: Insights from Climate Proxy Data and High-Frequency Water Monitoring

This study examines the impact of recent climatic trends on the preservation of submerged wooden structures at the Gran Carro archaeological site in Lake Bolsena, Italy. Climatic data from the Bolsena Meteorological Station were analysed alongside in situ water quality measurements collected near the archaeological remains at a depth of 4 m. The key parameters included water temperature (Tw), redox potential (Eh), dissolved oxygen (DO), and total dissolved solids (TDS). Trend analyses using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope revealed significant increases in air and water temperatures, which were strongly correlated. Although precipitation exhibited an upward trend, its negative correlation with temperature suggests greater variability rather than a stable water supply. Despite increased rainfall, lake levels showed a significant decline, likely due to intensified evaporation and water extraction for irrigation. UAV surveys confirmed recent lowering of the lake’s water surface during drought periods. Among the limnological parameters, dissolved oxygen saturation declined significantly, while redox potential increased, indicating shifts toward more anaerobic conditions. These environmental changes could promote the activity of erosive bacteria that degrade submerged wood. Conversely, increased evaporation might also enhance oxygen penetration at depth, potentially activating decay agents such as soft rot fungi and wood-boring bacteria. Overall, the findings suggest that ongoing climatic changes are adversely affecting the preservation of submerged wooden structures, highlighting the need for adaptive management strategies to protect both the lake ecosystem and its archaeological heritage.