Modeling Resilience in Food Systems: A Theoretical Framework for Analyzing the UK Pork Industry

Food security, defined as universal access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food, is a complex and multi-dimensional issue involving agricultural, ecological, and sociological systems. This paper explores food security through the development of a stylized mathematical model focused on the UK pork industry, an agricultural system shaped by environmental, economic, and social factors. The model employs coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to capture dynamic interactions among key variables such as capital, inventory, demand, and price, reflecting core economic and ecological processes. Bayesian estimation techniques are used to assess parameter uncertainty and enhance the model's robustness in addressing disruptions like Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic, which have strained supply chains and labor markets. The findings provide insights into the sustainable capacity of the UK pork industry while offering methodological tools for analyzing food system resilience in the face of environmental and market fluctuations.