Time Series Analysis of Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya in Ecuador: Emergence Patterns, Epidemiological Associations, and Climatic Influence (1988–2024)

Read the full article See related articles

Listed in

This article is not in any list yet, why not save it to one of your lists.
Log in to save this article

Abstract

Aedes-borne arboviruses, including dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), and chikungunya (CHIKV), pose significant public health challenges in Ecuador. This study analyzes their temporal dynamics over a 36-year period (1988--2024) to unravel patterns of emergence, interaction, and the influence of external factors. Using national surveillance data from the Ministry of Public Health, we conducted a time series analysis to examine incidence patterns, epidemic peaks, and epidemiological associations. The analysis reveals that dengue is an endemic-epidemic disease with major outbreaks often coinciding with El Niño events, including peaks in 1994, 2000, the historic high in 2015, and a resurgence in 2024. This pattern highlights a cyclical nature influenced by climatic variability. In contrast, chikungunya and Zika exhibited an explosive emergence in 2015 and 2016, respectively, coinciding with a strong El Niño event, followed by a rapid decline to near-zero reporting. The temporal succession and displacement of these arboviruses suggest strong epidemiological interactions, potentially mediated by cross-immunity, vector competition, and the impact of massive public health responses. Notably, the proportion of severe dengue cases has declined in recent years despite high overall incidence, and the COVID-19 pandemic likely introduced surveillance artifacts. These findings underscore the necessity of an integrated surveillance system capable of monitoring co-circulating pathogens within the context of climatic cycles and unforeseen public health emergencies. Adaptive control strategies are crucial for mitigating the impact of arboviruses in Ecuador's complex and diverse ecological landscape

Article activity feed