A Model for Estimating the Tourism Carrying Capacity (TCC) of a Serial Cultural Heritage: The Case of the “Via Appia. Regina Viarum”

The phenomenon of tourism is becoming increasingly central and integrated into strategic ter-ritorial planning practices, playing a crucial role in guiding development processes and prompting growing reflection on its impacts on places. In the absence of adequate planning, tourism can produce negative effects with significant implications for territorial resources and host commu-nities. In territories characterized by high spatial heterogeneity and dispersed tourist attractions, sustainable tourism management represents a growing challenge. Traditional approaches to es-timating tourism carrying capacity (TCC) often focus on individual sites, overlooking the com-plexity and extent of serial cultural landscapes. This study addresses this gap by proposing an innovative geographic-territorial model for estimating TCC, applied to the serial cultural site “Via Appia. Regina Viarum”. The model, based on Cifuentes’ ecosystem approach, expands the spatial domain of analysis to include 614 municipalities organized into 13 gravitational areas. Through a systemic perspective, multidimensional composite indices reflecting territorial extent and re-source endowment have been developed. The simulation of three tourism development scenar-ios—baseline, UNESCO effect, and stress test—up to 2034 reveals differentiated territorial re-sponses, providing analytical tools for sustainable strategic planning and proactive management of complex cultural territories.