Population Aging, Digital Economy and NQP-Empirical Data from China

Multiple metrics exist for assessing the development of new quality productivity (NQP). This study employs principal component analysis (PCA) to construct a multidimensional evaluation index. On the basis of theoretical analysis, panel model, spatial Durbin model and regulatory effect model are used to investigate the effects of population aging and digital economy on NQP. Utilizing provincial-level panel data from China (2000–2022), key findings emerge: (1) Population aging have an important positive influence on the development of NQP. (2) Digital transformation serves as the primary mechanism through which aging influences NQP. (3)Threshold regression analysis reveals a nonlinear relationship: When digital penetration is ≤0.1 (threshold value), aging inhibits NQP via suppressed digital transformation; beyond this threshold, aging promotes NQP through enhanced digital adoption.(4) Significant regional heterogeneity exists, with eastern provinces demonstrating markedly higher NQP development levels than western regions.