Determinants of Tropical Hardwood Lumber Exports to the ITTO Market: Econometric Evidence and Strategic Pathways for Sustainable Development in Producing Regions

This study examines the structural and cyclical determinants of tropical hardwood sawnwood exports among member countries of the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO), using a dynamic econometric panel approach covering the period 1995–2022. By applying a Common Correlated Effects–Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CCE-ARDL) model—robust to cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity—the analysis explores the interplay of macroeconomic, demographic, and sector-specific variables. Three key findings emerge: (i) a 1% increase in domestic sawnwood production leads to a 0.38% rise in long-run exports (p < 0.01), while short-run effects remain insignificant due to supply chain rigidities; (ii) strong bidirectional causality between imports and exports suggests increasing vertical integration, with elasticities of 0.33 (short term) and 0.37 (long term); (iii) population size significantly predicts export capacity (β = 1.29; p < 0.01), underscoring the structural importance of demographic scale effects. Granger causality tests confirm the persistence of path dependencies linked to historical trade structures, and a typology reveals four categories of exporters—from raw-material-dependent (e.g., Gabon) to high value-added re-exporters (e.g., Vietnam). The study highlights enduring asymmetries in tropical timber value chains: African producers supply around 15% of global tropical timber but capture no more than 20% of the final product value. Policy implications include industrial upgrading through forestry-based Special Economic Zones with tax incentives tied to processing depth, blockchain-enabled traceability to reduce illegality (notably 30% of Cameroon’s exports), and South-South cartelization to counterbalance buyer power—particularly from China, which controls over 60% of concessions in Central Africa. The paper ultimately proposes a Fair and Digital Tropical Timber Trade Model, integrating green industrialization, mirrored environmental clauses in trade agreements, and payment for ecosystem services (PES), as a pathway to reconciling economic sovereignty with long-term sustainability.