Spatiotemporal Patterns of Non-Communicable Disease Mortality in the Metropolitan Area of Mexico Valley

Non-communicable diseases (NCD) are a leading cause of mortality globally, contributing significantly to the burden on healthcare systems. Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of NCD mortality is crucial for identifying vulnerable populations and regions at high risk. Here, we evaluated the spatiotemporal patterns of NCD mortality in the Metropolitan Area of the Mexico Valley from 2000 to 2019 for five International Classification of Diseases Chapters (4, 5, 6, 9, 10) at two spatial scales: municipal level and metropolitan region. Mortality rates were calculated for the total population, and stratified by sex and age groups, at both spatial scales. In addition, relative risk (RR) of mortality was estimated to identify vulnerable population groups and regions with high risk of mortality. Mortality trends showed that circulatory system diseases (Chapter 9) are emerging as a concerning health issue, with a substantial number of municipalities showing increasing mortality trends, especially among older adults. Respiratory system diseases (Chapter 10), mental and behavioral disorders (Chapter 5) and nervous system diseases (Chapter 6) predominantly showed decreasing mortality trends. Endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases (Chapter 4) showed a more complex pattern, with some age groups presenting increasing mortality trends. The RR showed that men and older age groups (≥35 years) exhibiting higher mortality risks. Temporal trend of RR allowed us to identify spatial mortality hotspots mainly in chapters related to circulatory, endocrine, and respiratory diseases. The spatiotemporal analysis highlights municipalities and vulnerable populations with consistently elevated mortality risk. These findings emphasize the need for monitoring NCD mortality patterns at both the municipal and metropolitan levels to address disparities and guide the implementation of health policies aimed at reducing mortality risk in vulnerable populations.