Predicting Chlorophyll-a in the Mauritanian–Senegalese Coastal Upwelling from Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

The Mauritanian–Senegalese Coastal Upwelling exhibits strong interannual variability, which has been found to be driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In addition, ENSO has been shown to be triggered by the Indian Ocean and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability. Nevertheless, how all these basins impact on the upwelling predictability has not been analyzed so far. Using a satellite product of surface chlorophyll-a as a proxy of marine productivity, this work makes an assessment of the predictability of the Mauritanian–Senegalese Coastal Upwelling marine ecosystem. Different statistical approaches are used to evaluate the relative contribution of the tropical basins, including the Pacific, Indian, equatorial and Tropical North Atlantic SSTs. The results indicate that although most of the upwelling variability stands for ENSO, the Atlantic contributions play an important role in shaping the seasonal prediction skill. These results may have strong implications for fisheries and marine ecosystem management in the region.