Evolution of Climate Change, Water Civilization and Society: A Case Study in Dalmatia, Croatia

In natural environment water, food, and energy occur as both “stocks” and “flow” that influence biotic and abiotic components in river basins. Biotic and abiotic components interact and adapt to climate according to the biogeochemical cycle. The anthropogenic system also, by applying appropriate technologies to capture and storage resources, create “stocks” and “flow” of water, food and energy, to satisfy the "predictable" human demand in accordance with the "unpredictable" natural supply. To understand the extent of anthropogenic efforts in this endeavor in the region of ​​Dalmatia in Croatia, this study investigates long- and short-term relationships between climate, water and human history in the region from 750 BCE to 900 AD. It aims to understand the past, that is, assess change, to predict future scenario using an inductive approach. The emphasis is on water, because water management is a known prerequisite for sustaining civilization. The final outcome defines civilization resilience and sustainability. The results show that main threats to civilizations are unpredictable climate, lack of knowledge and technology, and democracy and equality of socio-political system. Therefore, this study proposes a method, tools, and indicators for assessment and planning adaptation of society for climate change.