Understanding Hydrological Responses to Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Belize River Watershed

Increasing forest destruction from land use and land cover change (LULCC) has altered catchment hydrological processes worldwide. This trend is also endemic to the Belize River Watershed (BRW), a significant source of land and water resources for Belize. This study aims to understand LULCC impacts on BRW hydrological responses from 2000 to 2020 by applying the widely used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). This study identified historical trends in LULCC in the BRW and explored an alternative 2020 land cover scenario to elucidate the role of protected forests for hydrological response regulation. A SWAT model for the BRW was developed at the monthly timescale and calibrated on in-situ stream flow using SWAT Calibrations and Uncertainty Programs (SWAT-CUP). Results showed that the BRW SWAT model performed satisfactorily for stream flow simulation at the Benque Viejo (BV) gauge station but performed variably at the Double Run (DR) gauge station. Overall, findings revealed watershed-level increases in monthly average sediment yield (34.40%), surface runoff (24.95%), stream flow (16.86%), water yield (16.02%), base flow (11.58%), and percolation (3.40%), and decreases in monthly average evapotranspiration (ET) (3.52%). In conclusion, the BRW SWAT model is promising for uncovering the hydrological impacts of LULCCs with opportunities for further model improvement.