Navigating Heights: The Dynamics of Mountain Entrepreneurship in Transport European Mountain Series Forecasting (8)

This study aims to develop a forecasting model for the evolution of entrepreneurship in the transport sector within European mountainous regions, by employing time series data and advanced statistical models. The forecasting analysis is based on an extensive set of 28 indicators (I1–I28), extracted from the Eurostat database, which reflect the dynamics of business births and deaths, survival rates, employment structure, and the pace of business growth. The research focuses on 15 European countries with relevant mountain areas, applying ARIMA-type models to assess the predictive capacity of the selected indicators.The findings highlight increased volatility in entrepreneurial activity, influenced by factors such as limited infrastructure, economic seasonality, and geographic isolation. Although the accuracy of the models varies, they allow for the identification of relevant trends and significant regional disparities. The study emphasizes that newly established enterprises, although small in size, play a key role in employment dynamics, while regions with more developed infrastructure tend to display better entrepreneurial performance. Therefore, the article provides a valuable empirical foundation for shaping public policy in European mountain regions.