How Does Technology Diffusion Affect Carbon Emissions in China’s Agricultural Sector?

The agricultural sector exhibits a dual nature, characterized by both carbon emissions and carbon absorption, resulting in a triad of carbon effects comprising carbon emissions, carbon absorption, and net carbon sequestration. Scientific and technological innovation and progress are the primary drivers for reducing carbon emissions and augmenting carbon sequestration within the agricultural industry. Technology diffusion can stimulate technological innovation, leading to broader and more substantial economic, social and ecological benefits. Investigating the impact of technology diffusion in the context of “emission reduction and sequestration enhancement” within the agricultural sector holds significant importance for achieving the goals of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”. Utilizing data from 21 cities in Guangdong Province spanning from 2015 to 2020, this paper employs Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to comprehensively assess technology diffusion by reducing dimensions and examines the influence of technology diffusion on the tripartite carbon effects of the agricultural sector through the establishment of a fixed effect model. The results reveal that: (1) technology diffusion contributes to a reduction in carbon emissions within the agricultural sector in Guangdong Province; (2) technology diffusion can enhance the total carbon absorption in the agricultural sector in Guangdong Province; (3) technology diffusion effectively bolsters the net carbon sequestration effect within the agricultural sector in Guangdong Province, China.