Case study: Romania within the statistical threshold for a Richter Magnitude 8+ earthquake

The Southeastern European country of Romania is among the most seismically active throughout the continent and currently faces a substantial seismic risk, particularly in the Vrancea region, which accounts for approximately 90% of the earthquakes. The present study evaluates the value of the statistical probability that a Richter Magnitude 8+ earthquake will occur in the area utilising the Poisson method, and introduces a novel statistical approach for approximating intervals of recurrence. Through the utilisation of the N [M(x+0.5)] = 2 * N (Mx) + 14 heuristic formula, in which N is equal to the number of years, it may be deduced that M8+ seismic events occur once every 174 years, on average, given that M7.5+ earthquakes generally occur once every 80 years. Historical records indicate that the most recent M8+ seismic event occurred in 1802 the latest, on Saint Paraskevi’s Day, meaning that at least 222 years have passed since the last event of such a magnitude, exceeding the statistical threshold with an extent of at least ~27.586%. If such an event only had a Richter Magnitude of 7.9, the current statistical risk for an M8+ event in Vrancea is likely even higher. Artificial Intelligence tools and simulation models that include Reason ChatGPT and DeepSearch Grok 3 beta have been utilised to provisionally assess the mentioned scientific data. Following such an assessment, the probability for an M8+ earthquake in the Vrancea region is projected to rise with 43.73% each hundred of years following the last M8+ earthquake in the area. Any consequence of such an event would implicate likely dam failures and numerous casualties and widespread damages and economic loss throughout Europe. The present study also takes into consideration existing tectonic influences from plates that are located in areas both neighbouring and afar, with a potential key example representing the Himalayan Mountains, which were formed as a result of a violent crash between the Indian and the Eurasian continental plates. It is important to mention that the Carpathian Mountains are part of the Himalayan-Alpine ring of mountains, alongside the Taurus, the Caucasian, the Alborz and the Sulaiman Mountains, and the fact that two major earthquakes in Vrancea (November 1940 and March 1977) occurred within 6-12 months after two major earthquakes in Turkey (December 1939 and November 1976) during the 20th century may indicate the existence of a transfer of tectonic stress originating from the Himalayan Mountains. Given that the Himalayan Mountains have continued to grow in altitude over the past millennia, that Mount Everest experienced a growth in altitude of ~4 metres in the 20th century (8848 m -> 8852 m) and that, following the occurrence of a Magnitude 7.8 earthquake in Nepal in 2015, Mount Everest experienced a loss of altitude of 3 metres (8852 m -> 8849 m), it may be important to consider the potential existence of an association between major tectonic changes within the Himalayan Mountains and rising probabilities of seismic events in proximal and distant areas within the Himalayan-Alpine ring, including the Carpathian Mountains, whose steep curvature in the Southeast may explain the existence of a significant fault underneath Vrancea. An analogy into geology may apply from biological systems, in which tectonic stresses can be transferred throughout lengthy distances, just as muscular contractions can significantly affect distant parts of the human body, and particularly the ones with a lower extent of stability. In the same manner, areas of significant mountain ring curvature that likely include the Vrancea region, may be particularly affected by any transmitted wave of seismic stress, regardless of the distance from the emitting source of such stress. As a result, even subtle increases in underlying stresses may substantially increase the risk of a major earthquake in Southeastern Romania, even for fault lines located several thousand of kilometres away, especially if such stresses originate from a central point of tectonic interaction between two major continental plates. Furthermore, the continuous movement of the African plate toward the Eurasian plate with an average speed of 2.15 cm per year could also have been gradually amplifying existing transfers of tectonic stress via the African, Asian and European plates, potentially having brought additional, indirect implications for both Asia Minor and Southeastern Europe, and the consideration of long-term tectonic changes around the Eastern Mediterranean would be particularly important. For the purpose of International Health and Safety guidelines, local, national and international authorities should not rule out the occurrence of an earthquake with a magnitude of up to M9, given the lack of historic data regarding the occurrence of an M8.5+ earthquake within the past 400 years [N (M8.5) = 2 * 174 + 14 = 362 years], let alone since records first began around 800 years ago. Any seismic event exceeding M8 in Vrancea would likely be felt throughout widespread areas of Europe, and the medium-high average depth of earthquakes in Vrancea (i.e. generally around 70-200 km underneath the sea level) would be a major factor to such a phenomenon.