Crisis-Proofing the Fresh: A Multi-Risk Management Approach for Sustainable Produce Trade Flows

The study posits the need for a conceptual multi-risk management approach for fresh produce, an essential product category for societal resilience, and one constantly affected by climate change, policy volatility, and geopolitical disruptions. The research starts from a literature-informed risk typological mapping, leading to Gephi visualizations of networks related to this trade. Network analysis using 2024 bilateral trade data reveals a core-periphery topology, with the United States, Spain, and the Netherlands as central hubs. A gravity-based simulation model is, lastly, used to address the question: what structural vulnerabilities and flow-based sensitivities define the global fresh produce trade, and how do they respond to simulated multi-risk disruptions? The model uses the case of USA as a global trade hub and induces two compounding risks: a protectionist tariff policy shock and a climate-related shock in its main supplier. The conclusion is that the fragility in the fresh produce trade enhances the cascading effects that any risk event may have across environmental, economic, and social sustainability dimensions. The paper emphasizes the need for anticipatory governance, diversification of trade partners, and investment in cold chain resilience, offering an image for policymakers to acknowledge the risk and mitigate this increasingly fragile fresh produce trade.