Exploring the Impact of Improved Maize Seeds on Tanzanian Family Farms: A Maize Seed Stochastic Simulation (MaizeSim) Approach

Investment in modern agricultural practices (MAP) is crucial for improving crop productivity and household food security in developing countries like Tanzania, where agriculture forms the backbone of the economy. This study assesses the impact of improved maize seeds on productivity across Tanzania's agroecological zones using data from the Tanzanian National Panel Survey (NPS) Wave 5. A stochastic simulation model (a non-parametric model “MaizeSim”) was employed to account for the inherent variability and uncertainty considerations in maize yields, offering a more accurate representation of outcomes for both improved seed users and non-users. The results reveal that farmers who used improved seeds had a 33% probability of achieving yields above 2 t/ha, compared to only 11% for those using local varieties. Conversely, non-users faced a 65% probability of harvesting below 1 t/ha, while this probability dropped to 38% for improved seed users. Regionally, the highest productivity gains were observed in the Central, Southern Highlands, and Northern Highlands zones, whereas the Eastern Coastal, Southern, and Lake zones experienced minimal benefits. The findings underscore the critical importance of encouraging the adoption of improved seed varieties as a pathway to enhance maize productivity, particularly in regions with favorable agroecological conditions. The study provides valuable insights for the development of the Tanzanian Seed Sector Development Strategy 2030, advocating for policies that promote increased investment in improved maize seeds. The results suggest that sustained application of these seeds, alongside complementary interventions such as agronomic training and improved access to inputs, is essential for improving the productivity and food security of Tanzanian smallholder farmers. By addressing regional disparities and promoting tailored seed varieties, this strategy could significantly enhance the resilience and productivity of the country's maize sector.