Sustainable Transboundary Water Governance in Central Asia: Challenges, Conflicts, and Regional Cooperation

Water security has become a pressing issue in Central Asia due to increasing climate variability, rising water demand, and geopolitical challenges surrounding transboundary river management. This paper examines the complexities of water resource governance in the region, emphasizing the interplay between national interests and regional cooperation. Using the Regional Security Complex Theory, we analyze how social, economic, environmental, and political factors influence water diplomacy among Central Asian states. Key challenges include water scarcity, climate change impacts, the development of the Kushtepa Canal in Afghanistan, and the growing tensions over transboundary river basins, particularly in the Aral Sea basin. The intricate linkages between water, energy, and agriculture further complicate decision-making processes among riparian nations. While recent diplomatic efforts signal a shift towards enhanced regional cooperation, existing agreements remain fragmented, and a sustainable, long-term governance framework is still lacking. This study underscores the importance of an integrated, basin-wide approach to transboundary water management. We argue that a cohesive regional water strategy—grounded in international legal frameworks and supported by collaborative governance mechanisms—can mitigate conflicts and promote water security in Central Asia. Strengthening institutional capacity, leveraging technological innovations, and incorporating Afghanistan as an upstream stakeholder are critical steps toward a more resilient and cooperative water governance model.