Cyclic Interannual Variation in Monsoon Onset and Rainfall in South-Central Arizona, U.S.A.

The North American Monsoon (NAM) in southern Arizona continues to be a topic of interest to many ecologists studying the triggers and characteristics of plant growth and reproduction in relation to the onset of the monsoon. The purpose of this article is to report interannual variation in the timing of NAM onset found while researching the phenology of Saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea). Using a daily rainfall dataset from 33 stations located in Pima and Pinal Counties, Arizona, from 1990-2022, we analyzed monsoon onset, monsoon precipitation, annual precipitation, and the proportion of annual station precipitation received during the monsoon season. Onset was measured by the first day from 1 June to 30 September with precipitation ≥10 mm counted from the day of the vernal equinox of the year. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) identified sinusoidal waves with period of 8.6 years and amplitudes of 14-29 days, providing frequency and amplitude estimates for Sinusoidal Regression Models (SRMs). Sinusoidal wave patterns found in the monsoon onset dataset are suggested in monsoon, annual, and proportion of monsoon in station-averaged annual precipitation although in and approximately mirror-image. These unexpected findings may have important implications for forecasters as well as ecologists interested in plant phenology.