Dynamic Risk Transmission in the Chinese Hospitality Industry: A Time-Varying Analysis

Comprehending the dynamics of risk spillover across the value chain is indispensable for effective risk management, especially amid increasing economic and geopolitical uncertainty. This study investigates the mechanics of risk transmission within the value chain of Chinese hospitality industry, employs a (TVP-VAR) model, using daily data from January 2015 to December 2023. The research identifies key sub-sectors, hotel resort and luxury cruise, film and entertainment, mall and supermarket, environmental and facilities services, air freight and logistics, and road transportation, as significant risk transmitters that affect the overall stability of the industry. Conversely, sectors such as restaurant, liquor and wine, leisure services and railway transport are designated as risk receivers. The results offer critical insights for stakeholders, emphasizing the necessity of comprehensive risk management strategies to reduce negative spillover effects, particularly in the context of economic shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict.