Exploring the Underlying Drivers of Population Change: A Case Study from Sichuan Province, China

Population change in high-altitude mountainous areas is influenced by various socio-economic and environmental factors, yet relevant research remains limited. This study examines the key driving forces of population change in high-altitude mountainous areas, using Sichuan Province, China, as a case study, to provide insights for regional planning. By employing Geodetector and spatial autocorrelation analysis, this study evaluates the impact of economic, infrastructure, and healthcare factors on population change based on 14 indicators from the Sichuan Statistical Yearbook. The results indicate that healthcare resources and economic factors are the primary drivers of population change in high-altitude areas. Resident and rural population are most influenced by healthcare resources, while urban population change is driven by both economic and healthcare factors. In recent years, the dominant driving force of population growth has shifted from economic factors to healthcare resources, with high-altitude areas experiencing a higher population growth rate than low-altitude areas. The findings highlight the critical role of healthcare accessibility and economic development in shaping population dynamics in high-altitude areas, providing empirical support for regional development policies.