Impacts of Urban Heat Island and Future Climate on Urban Buildings Energy Use in a U.S. Midwest Neighborhood

Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects and future climate change significantly impact building energy use but are often overlooked in widely used meteorological datasets like Typical Meteorological Years (TMYs). These datasets are collected at rural stations, such as airports, over long historical periods, failing to capture localized microclimates and climate shifts. This study integrates Urban Weather Generator (UWG)-based UHI simulation, future climate modeling, and neighborhood-scale data within an Urban Building Energy Modeling (UBEM) framework to assess residential energy demand in Des Moines, Iowa. Results show that UHI intensity rises from an annual average of 0.55 °C under current conditions to 0.60 °C by 2050 and 0.63 °C by 2080, with peak intensities in summer. UHI elevates cooling Energy Use Intensity (EUI) by 7% today, with projections indicating a sharp increase: 91% by 2050 and 154% by 2080. UHI further amplifies cooling demand by 2.3% and 6.2% in 2050 and 2080, respectively. Conversely, heating EUI declines by 20.0% by 2050 and 40.1% by 2080, with UHI slightly reducing heating demand. Insulation mitigates cooling loads but becomes less effective for heating demand over time. These findings underscore the need for climate-adaptive energy policies, prioritizing retrofits, and passive design to manage future cooling burdens.