<span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DengXian; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">Geospatial Analysis of Regional Disparities in Non-Grain Cultivation: Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Mechanisms in Jiangsu, China
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Balancing regional disparities in non-grainization at the prefecture level is vital for stable grain production and sustainable urbanization. This study employs geospatial analysis to examine the spatiotemporal patterns and driver factors of non-grainization in Jiangsu Province from 2001 to 2020. By integrating geospatial data from 77 county-level units and employing spatial autocorrelation analysis, multiple linear regression, and Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR), this study reveals the spatial heterogeneity and key driving factors of non-grainization. The results indicate that despite cyclical fluctuations in the provincial non-grainization rate, significant regional differences persist. High–high clusters are evident in economically developed southern and coastal areas, while low–low clusters are observed in less developed northern regions, indicating strong spatial dependence. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that rural residents' per capita disposable income and total agricultural output contribute to the process of non-grainization, emphasizing the impact of economic development on land use decisions. These findings highlight the importance of geoinformation tools in managing regional disparities. Integrating spatial and socioeconomic analysis offers practical insights for policymakers to develop targeted strategies that balance food security with agricultural diversification. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers seeking to optimize land-use planning in rapidly urbanizing agricultural regions.