Competitive Dynamics of Mexican Fresh Grapes in the U.S. Market

This study evaluates the competitive performance of Mexican fresh grape exports in the United States market from 2002 to 2022. Over this period, Mexican exports exhibited a pronounced declining trend, while competitors such as Chile and Peru significantly increased their market shares. Employing the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index and the Constant Market Share Analysis (CMSA), the growth dynamics of export performance were systematically decomposed. The findings reveal a substantial contraction in Mexico’s export volumes and market share, which plummeted from 27.5% in 2002 to a mere 6.1% in 2022, alongside a marked decline in its RCA from 2.4 to 0.3. In stark contrast, Peru demonstrated remarkable growth, expanding its market share from 0.7% to 39.4%, driven by structural advantages and superior competitiveness. While Chile maintained consistent export volumes, it experienced a relative decline in market share, ceding ground to emerging players like Peru. The analysis underscores the structural and competitive challenges confronting Mexico in the U.S. fresh grape market, emphasizing the urgent need for strategic policy interventions. These should focus on enhancing productivity, capitalizing on market opportunities, and bolstering agricultural competitiveness. Peru’s success underscores the critical role of dynamic production strategies and alignment with evolving market demands in securing sustained export growth.