Modeling the Knowledge Production Function Based on Bibliometric Information

The amount of knowledge is an integral indicator of the development of society. The article examines the knowledge production on a global scale. The measure of knowledge is the number of accumulated publications in the form of patents, articles and books. The rate of knowledge production depends on population size and average human productivity. Productivity generally depends on accumulated knowledge and plays a decisive role in the dynamics of knowledge and related demographic dynamics. Constructing this dependence in the general case, applying it to each type of publication, checking its adequacy and finding parameters is the goal of this study. First, existing econometric models are analyzed, and then a generalized model is developed, of which some literature models are special cases. An important question is under what conditions human productivity can be considered approximately constant, and under what conditions it grows significantly as knowledge accumulates. Finding these conditions provides a criterion that distinguishes a less developed pre-information society from an advanced information society, and allows us to clear up when this transition occurred. The results obtained allow us to forecast the further development of various forms of knowledge in the world.