The Influence of Domestic Socioeconomic Development on Migration Decisions in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Insights from the Migration Transitions and Capabilities Perspective

People, their families, and communities weigh the costs and benefits of migration to decide whether to move or stay; however, these decisions are complex and influenced by multiple factors. This study uses the Migration Transition and Aspirations-Capabilities framework to examine how domestic socioeconomic development shapes migration decisions. Applying the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Quantitative Descriptive Analyses (QDA) to panel data from 109 low- and middle-income countries, it compares the impact of GDP per capita and the Human Development Index (HDI) on net migration and emigration trends. The dynamic panel regression results show that the HDI exerts a more substantial effect on positive net migration, with its impact being approximately 10.69 times greater than GDP per capita. Coefficients for HDI range from 9.144 to 13.79, while those for GDP per capita range from 0.994 to 1.785. The QDA results also suggest that migration equilibrium is reached at approximately $4,000 GDP per capita, based on emigration rates, and around $7,000 when measured by net migration rates. Additionally, countries with GDPpc between $2,000 and $4,000 experience sharp negative net migration, indicating a highly mobile population in this income range. Finally, the regression results question the theoretical assumption of non-linearity, revealing almost a linear relationship between development and migration. We project that the high emigration flows from low- and lower-middle-income countries will likely continue for the foreseeable future. In light of this, governments in countries of migrant origin must transition from restrictive migration policies and border controls to strategies that promote sustainable socioeconomic development. By improving the Human Development Index (HDI), migration can shift from necessity to a matter of choice. This approach can unlock the full developmental benefits of migration while contributing to the global objectives of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration (GCM).