Analyzing Cost Overrun Risks in Construction Projects: A Multi-Stakeholder Perspective Using Fuzzy Group Decision-Making and K-Means Clustering

This study examines cost overrun factors in construction projects, focusing on the MENA region using Egypt as a case study. A systematic literature review was conducted, analyzing 405 research papers published between 2000 and 2024, from which 64 relevant papers were selected to identify 48 key factors contributing to cost overruns. Using K-Means clustering, these factors were grouped into three clusters based on their probability and impact, allowing for their classification by risk level. To ensure robust analysis, a survey was conducted to gather expert input, resulting in 369 valid responses from clients, contractors, and consultants. The Fuzzy Group Decision-Making Approach (FGDMA) was used to rank all 48 factors, offering a detailed assessment of their relative importance. Based on these rankings, the top 20 factors were identified for further analysis to examine variations in stakeholder priorities, capturing differences in perspectives among clients, contractors, and consultants. Sensitivity analysis and Tornado charts revealed critical variations among stakeholder, with consultants and clients prioritizing design-related risks, such as inconsistencies and delays in approvals, while contractors focused more on material waste. The findings present a structured approach for analyzing and prioritizing cost overrun risks, providing practical insights for construction professionals to improve cost and risk management strategies.