Modeling Mpox Transmission and Burden Across VariousVaccination Levels in the DRC Using an Age-Structured Model

Mpox is an infectious viral disease endemic to Central African countries. It has seen a resurgence in this region, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), disproportionately affecting children under 15 years. In this study, we developed an age-structured mathematical model to assess the effect of vaccination on Mpox dynamics in the DRC, focusing on children under 15 as the primary target of upcoming vaccination campaigns. The model captures transmission dynamics across different vaccination coverage levels (10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%) and incorporates critical factors such as age-based susceptibility, waning immunity and control measures). Results reveal a peak in MPOX-confirmed cases on September 29, 2024, with 410 cases and four deaths. From January to December 2025, 4860 cases and 52 deaths were predicted, and a higher vaccination coverage (40%) combined with improved non-pharmaceutical interventions (Φ1 = 20%) targeting under-15s could significantly reduce Mpox transmission and burden, with up to 1,800 cases and 17 deaths averted. The findings underscore the importance of vaccination campaigns, coupled with improved public health measures, in mitigating Mpox transmission and alleviating its burden on vulnerable populations. This study provides a framework for evaluating vaccination strategies and their effectiveness in controlling emerging infectious diseases.