Parameterization and Runoff Formation Processes Modeling Using the Data of the Research Site Mogot (the Baikal-Amur Mainline Area in Eastern Siberia)

Mountainous cryosphere being poorly explored is experiencing significant transformation of hydrological regime under climate change impact leading to unpredicted damages and risks to infrastructure. The study aimed parameterization of the hydrological model using the data of historical research site Mogot (1977-1985) located in the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM) area, Eastern Siberia. The Hydrograph model was applied as it contains the algorithms describing the dynamics of heat and moisture in permafrost profile and is not demanding on input data. Using the observational data on snow, ground temperature, thaw-freeze depths, streamflow at small watersheds, the landscape distribution and soil/vegetation descriptions, the set of the model parameters describing the flow regime in main types of the landscapes was developed. The simulations of snow and ground state variables, water balance and streamflow were carried out for the Nelka River watershed (30.8 km2) and its tributaries. The results were verified by the observational data. The developed parameters were transferred to larger rivers, Tynda (4060 km2) and Unakha (1950 km2), continuous daily streamflow simulations were conducted for 1966-2012 period. Despite the lack of meteorological data, the satisfactory simulation results indicate the potential of historical observations to simulate the streamflow at the southern boundary of the permafrost area of BAM.