Impact of International Oil Price Shocks and Inflation on Bank Efficiency and Financial Stability: Evidence from the Saudi Arabian Banking Sector

The aim of this study is to examine the short-run and the long-run equilibrium relationship between banking sector’s efficiency and stability and its endogenous and exogenous determinants such as inflation and international oil prices shocks in Saudi Arabia over the period 2004–2022. This study differentiates between the direct and indirect effects of international oil price changes on bank efficiency and stability to investigate the extent to which these changes can affect the banking sector through inflation. The first stage consists of using a panel Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL). The empirical result confirms the existence of a long/short run relationship between oil price shocks and stability and efficiency of banks. In the long run the relationship is statistically significant and positive and is negative in the short run. On the other hand, this study finds that oil price shocks directly affect the stability and efficiency of banks. In the second stage, this study uses a nonlinear ARD (NARD) to examine the short- and long-run asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks on the stability and efficiency of banks by decomposing the oil price index into positive and negative changes. The finding confirms an asymmetric relationship between oil prices and the stability and efficiency of banks in Saudi Arabia. In addition, a positive change in oil price can affect the stability and efficiency of banks more than a negative one. Overall, the finding highlights the need for policymakers in Saudi Arabia to be vigilant in addressing the potential risks arising from oil price fluctuations and to adopt appropriate policy measures to maintain stability and efficiency in the banking sector.