Assessing the Impact of Decentralized Party Structures on Membership Stability in Nigeria: A Study of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressive Congress (APC), 2015–2023

This study investigates the impact of decentralized organizational party structures on the membership stability of Nigeria's two leading political parties, the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC), between 2015 and 2023. Conducted from April to August 2024, the study focuses on how decentralized party frameworks influence membership retention, particularly in Nigeria's fragmented political landscape, where ethnic and regional divisions challenge political cohesion. A multi-stage sampling technique to select 400 respondents, including national and local party leaders, assembly members, and grassroots members from the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. A total of 384 valid responses were retrieved, yielding a 96% response rate. Data collection was facilitated through questionnaires administered via Google Forms, which were distributed through email and social media platforms, with a particular focus on WhatsApp for ease of access and engagement. Regression and correlation analyses were used to assess the relationship between decentralization and membership stability. The findings reveal a strong positive correlation (r = 0.961) between decentralized structures and membership stability, with decentralization accounting for 92.4% of the variance in membership stability (R² = 0.924). This indicates that decentralization plays a crucial role in promoting party institutionalization, fostering greater engagement, loyalty, and retention among members. However, regional disparities in the effectiveness of decentralization present challenges to uniform implementation. These results underscore the importance of standardizing decentralization policies across various regions to ensure coherence and reduce membership volatility. The study recommends a harmonized framework that supports decentralized governance within political parties, enhancing internal democracy and reinforcing party unity. The research concludes by emphasizing the need for ongoing exploration into the nuances of decentralization to further support Nigeria’s democratic consolidation. This study offers valuable insights for party leaders, policymakers, and researchers interested in the institutionalization of political organizations in emerging democracies.